TSX Costco stock analysis reveals a $30 special cash dividend, a $4 billion share‑buyback program and solid earnings growth in fiscal 2026.
Key Facts
- Fiscal 2026 revenue: $303.15 billion (+10.14% YoY) 【Source 1】
- Fiscal 2026 earnings: $9.23 billion (+13.92% YoY) 【Source 1】
- Special cash dividend: $30 per share, payable 4 December 2026 【Source 1】
- Current TSX price (intraday): $1,063 (mid‑point of 52‑week range) 【Source 2】
- Forward dividend yield: 0.55% (based on $5.88 annual dividend) 【Source 2】
What is TSX Costco stock analysis?
TSX Costco stock analysis evaluates the financial performance, valuation multiples, dividend policy and analyst expectations for Costco Wholesale Corp. (ticker COST) as listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It helps investors compare the stock’s risk‑adjusted return against peers and decide whether to buy, hold or sell.
Revenue and earnings trends
Costco’s fiscal 2026 revenue reached $303.15 billion, a 10.14 % increase from $275.24 billion in fiscal 2025 【Source 1】. Earnings rose to $9.23 billion, up 13.92 % year‑over‑year 【Source 1】. The growth was driven by higher comparable sales (12.6 % YoY in October 2026) and strong digital sales growth of 22.5 % 【Source 1】.
How does the dividend compare?
Costco declared a special cash dividend of $30 per share on 10 November 2026, payable 4 December 2026 【Source 1】. Including the regular quarterly dividend, the forward annual dividend is $5.88, yielding roughly 0.55 % at the current price 【Source 2】. The special payout represents a 10 % increase over the prior special dividend of $27 per share announced in 2024.
Valuation multiples
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value / Revenue | 1.52 × |
| Enterprise Value / EBITDA | 31.86 × |
| Return on Equity (ttm) | 28.40 % |
| Return on Assets (ttm) | 8.66 % |
| Total Debt / Equity (mrq) | 28.44 % |
| Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) | $6.75 billion |
These figures, sourced from Yahoo Finance, place Costco in the upper tier of consumer‑defensive stocks, with a strong ROE and healthy cash flow generation.
Analyst price targets
Bank of America raised its price target to $1,257 from $1,095, maintaining a Buy rating 【Source 1】. Mizuho lifted its target to $1,100 (from $1,065) and kept an Outperform rating 【Source 1】. Bernstein’s target sits at $1,155, up from $1,143 【Source 1】. JPMorgan’s most recent target is $1,150, up from $1,015 【Source 1】. The consensus range of analyst targets spans $1,095-$1,257, implying a potential upside of 3-19 % from the current price.
Share‑repurchase program
Costco reauthorized a $4 billion stock repurchase program through November 2030, replacing the previous $4 billion plan that expired in 2026 【Source 1】. The buyback, combined with the special dividend, signals confidence in cash generation and a commitment to return capital to shareholders.
Risk factors to consider
- Margin pressure from inflation‑driven input costs. Higher food and fuel prices can erode net margins despite strong sales.
- Currency exposure. Approximately 14 % of revenue comes from international markets, making earnings sensitive to FX fluctuations.
- Regulatory risk. Changes in pharmacy reimbursement or import tariffs could affect the growing non‑food segments.
How to evaluate the stock for a portfolio
- Assess dividend safety. With a payout ratio below 30 % and a record of special dividends, Costco’s cash flow comfortably supports its dividend policy.
- Compare valuation. The EV/EBITDA of 31.86 × is higher than the consumer‑staples median of ~28 ×, reflecting premium pricing for a defensive business.
- Check growth drivers. Digital sales growth (22.5 % YoY) and membership renewal rates (92 % in the U.S. and Canada) provide recurring revenue streams.
- Factor in analyst sentiment. The upward revisions from BofA, Mizuho and JPMorgan suggest a bullish outlook.
- Align with risk tolerance. The low dividend yield and modest upside make Costco suitable for investors seeking stability rather than high growth.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Costco’s dividend yield on the TSX?
Costco’s forward dividend yield on the TSX is approximately 0.55 %, based on a total annual dividend of $5.88 and a current share price near $1,063 【Source 2】.
How much cash did Costco return to shareholders in 2026?
In fiscal 2026 Costco paid a $30 special cash dividend per share and reauthorized a $4 billion share‑buyback program, together returning over $13 billion to shareholders 【Source 1】.
What are the main drivers of Costco’s earnings growth?
Key drivers include a 12.6 % rise in October comparable sales, a 22.5 % increase in digitally enabled sales, and continued membership renewal rates above 90 % worldwide 【Source 1】.
Is Costco considered a defensive stock?
Yes. Costco operates in the consumer‑defensive sector, offers essential goods, and maintains high member retention, which buffers it against economic cycles 【Source 2】.
When is the next earnings report?
Costco’s next earnings date is scheduled for 10 December 2026 【Source 2】.
Sources: StockAnalysis.com – Costco Wholesale (TSX:COST) – Yahoo Finance – Costco Wholesale Corp (COST)Updated: November 14, 2026.
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