Rain is near-certain at Phillip Island on Sunday, October 25, 2026, with WeatherBug placing the chance of precipitation at 100% as the final MotoGP Australian Grand Prix runs at the island circuit. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts a very high chance of rain, a possible morning thunderstorm and south to southwesterly winds gusting to 35 km/h. Riders will race on a wet track, and the wet pattern is expected to linger into early next week.
The conditions cap a weekend that carries extra weight for the Victorian island. According to GPblog, this is the final Australian Grand Prix at Phillip Island, and forecasters expect rain for both the Sprint and the Grand Prix. Riders Marc Marquez and Pedro Acosta have both reacted to the prospect of wet running, GPblog reports.
Key Facts
- WeatherBug puts the chance of rain at Phillip Island at 100% for Sunday, October 25, with a high near 59°F (15°C) and winds of 20 mph from the SSW.
- The Bureau of Meteorology forecast, issued at 5:45 am AEDT on October 25, warns of a possible thunderstorm Sunday morning and winds increasing to 35 km/h.
- Weather-forecast.com expects about 45 mm of rain, heaviest during Sunday morning.
- Rain chances fall to 40% on Monday, October 26, and 45% on Tuesday, October 27, per WeatherBug.
- Temperatures climb toward 75°F (24°C) by Sunday, November 1, according to WeatherBug’s 10-day outlook.
What is the Phillip Island weather forecast for Sunday, October 25?
Sunday is the wettest day of the weekend. WeatherBug lists cloudy skies with likely rain, a 100% chance of precipitation, a high around 59°F and average humidity of 89%. Dew points near 57°F will keep the air heavy. Winds blow 20 mph from the SSW during the day before easing to 18 mph from the WSW at night, with a low near 50°F.
The Bureau of Meteorology agrees on the broad picture. Its Sunday forecast for Phillip Island reads:
“Cloudy. Very high chance of rain, becoming less likely this evening. The chance of a thunderstorm this morning.”
Bureau of Meteorology, Phillip Island forecast
The service puts daytime maximums between 15 and 19°C and flags a UV index of 8, rated Very High, with sun protection advised from 9:30 am to 4:30 pm.
Weather-forecast.com goes further on totals. It expects heavy rain of roughly 45 mm, with the heaviest falls during Sunday morning, and mainly fresh winds. Its outlook calls for a minimum of 10°C on Sunday night.
How will the rain affect the final MotoGP Australian Grand Prix?
Wet track conditions change everything for a MotoGP round. GPblog’s headline frames the forecast bluntly: MotoGP at Phillip Island faces a 100% rain forecast for the final Australian Grand Prix, with rain expected for both the Sprint and the Grand Prix itself. The outlet notes that Marc Marquez and Pedro Acosta have reacted to the prospect of wet conditions.
Phillip Island sits at 38.48°S, 145.23°E and has a population of about 7,071, according to Weather-forecast.com. Its exposure on the Bass Strait coast makes wind a constant factor, and Sunday’s south to southwesterly flow will funnel straight across the circuit. Windy conditions have shaped plenty of past race weekends here, and this one will be no exception.
Rain and wind also matter for the thousands of fans attending the last race. Spectators face a cold, damp day, with the BoM warning of possible small hail near the coast in the early morning of Monday, October 26, as the system clears.
Phillip Island weather forecast day by day
Here is WeatherBug’s 10-day outlook for Phillip Island, Victoria, as of October 24, 2026, at 12:00 am UTC.
| Date | Conditions | Rain chance | High / Low | Wind |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, Oct 25 | Cloudy, likely rain | 100% | 59°F / 50°F | 20 mph SSW |
| Mon, Oct 26 | Partly cloudy, chance of rain | 40% | 56°F / 50°F | 15 mph WSW |
| Tue, Oct 27 | Partly cloudy, chance of rain | 45% | 57°F / 51°F | 12 mph WSW |
| Wed, Oct 28 | Mostly cloudy | 0% | 59°F / 52°F | 13 mph W |
| Thu, Oct 29 | Partly cloudy | 0% | 61°F / 53°F | 9 mph WSW |
| Fri, Oct 30 | Partly cloudy | 0% | 60°F / 52°F | 10 mph SE |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Mostly sunny, chance of storms | 25% | 69°F / 58°F | 8 mph ENE |
| Sun, Nov 1 | Mostly cloudy | 0% | 75°F / 61°F | 12 mph NNE |
| Mon, Nov 2 | Cloudy | 0% | 68°F / 60°F | 8 mph NW |
| Tue, Nov 3 | Mostly cloudy | 0% | 62°F / 57°F | 14 mph WSW |
When does the Phillip Island rain ease off?
The wet pattern fades early in the week. The BoM expects a high chance of showers in the southeast on Monday, October 26, with west to southwesterly winds of 20 to 30 km/h, temperatures between 12 and 16°C and possible small hail near the coast early in the morning. Tuesday, October 27, brings a medium chance of showers, most likely in the morning and afternoon, with maximums of 13 to 17°C and a UV index of 8.
Wednesday, October 28, looks mostly dry. The BoM forecasts only a slight chance of an afternoon shower, light winds, maximums of 15 to 19°C and a UV index of 9, rated Very High. Weather-forecast.com sums up the following days as mostly dry and very mild, with a maximum of 15°C on Thursday, October 29, and generally light winds.
The warmth builds later. WeatherBug has Halloween Saturday, October 31, mostly sunny with a 25% chance of rain and thunderstorms and a high of 69°F. By Sunday, November 1, the forecast peak reaches 75°F. Weather-forecast.com sees moderate rain of about 13 mm returning, heaviest on Wednesday night in the November 4 to 6 window, with a warm maximum of 24°C on Tuesday afternoon.
Why do the Phillip Island weather forecasts differ?
The main sources do not fully agree. WeatherBug shows a 100% rain chance for Sunday with a high of 59°F, while the BoM calls the rain chance “very high” rather than certain and puts maximums at 15 to 19°C. Weather-forecast.com projects a cooler maximum of 13°C on Monday afternoon, below the BoM’s 12 to 16°C range for that day, which sits at the lower end of the official band.
Differences like these are normal. Global model-based services such as WeatherBug and Weather-forecast.com update continuously, while the Bureau of Meteorology issues scheduled routine forecasts, with the next one due at 4:15 pm AEDT Sunday. Anyone planning a trip to the island should check the latest BoM update before travelling. Readers tracking weather systems elsewhere can compare with our Jacksonville weather weekend forecastwhich also flags wind and beach hazards.
FAQ
Is it going to rain at Phillip Island on Sunday, October 25?
Yes. WeatherBug puts the chance of rain at 100%, and the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts a very high chance of rain with a possible morning thunderstorm. The heaviest rain is expected during Sunday morning.
How much rain will fall at Phillip Island this weekend?
Weather-forecast.com expects about 45 mm of rain over the coming days, with the heaviest falls during Sunday morning. Showers then taper through Monday and Tuesday.
How windy will it be at Phillip Island for the MotoGP race?
Sunday’s winds will blow from the south to southwest at 15 to 25 km/h, increasing to 35 km/h before easing in the afternoon, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. WeatherBug’s estimate is 20 mph from the SSW.
What is the UV index at Phillip Island this week?
The BoM predicts a UV index of 8, rated Very High, on Sunday and Tuesday, rising to 9 on Wednesday. Sun protection is recommended from roughly 9:20 am to 4:40 pm despite the cool temperatures.
When will Phillip Island warm up?
A warming trend starts on Halloween weekend. WeatherBug forecasts 69°F on Saturday, October 31, and 75°F on Sunday, November 1, before cooler, cloudier weather returns early in November.
Sources: GPblog – WeatherBug – Bureau of Meteorology – Weather-forecast.comUpdated: October 24, 2026.
